Bitcoin Sees Darkest First Quarter Since 2018: Down 22%, Could This Be the Start of a Long-Term Downturn?

Bitcoin Sees Darkest First Quarter Since 2018: Down 22%, Could This Be the Start of a Long-Term Downturn?

Bitcoin is experiencing one of its worst quarters in years in the first quarter of 2026. It is currently trading around $68,000, down about 22% from the start of the year when it was trading around $87,700. The plunge puts it on track for its worst first quarter since 2018, when it lost almost half of its value during the bear market – 49.7% to be exact.

Bitcoin is already down more than $20,000 since the start of the year, making January and February the first time since 2018 that the cryptocurrency has had two consecutive losing periods. In January, Bitcoin fell 10.2%, and in February, it fell another 13.4%. If things don’t improve, it could end the first two months of the year in the red, which would be another sign of a significant correction.

History shows that the first quarter is often very volatile. However, according to analyst Daan Trades Crypto, it is important to emphasize that these declines usually do not affect the long-term trajectory of the asset. “Whatever happens in the first quarter, historical data shows that the market usually recovers,” the analyst commented.

Compared to Bitcoin, the situation for Ethereum is less dramatic, but here too the current loss of 34.3% is among the three worst in history. However, Ethereum has not yet entered the bearish mode that Bitcoin has.

In addition, Bitcoin is likely to experience its first consecutive first two months of the year in the red. It lost 10.2% in January, and is down 13.4% in February so far. To avoid a red February, the price will have to quickly rise to at least $80,000.

According to Nick Ruck of LVRG Research, the current decline is more part of a normal correction phase than a long-term disruption to Bitcoin’s fundamentals. He notes that despite the short-term pressures, the asset still has the potential to rebound strongly in the coming months, especially thanks to continued institutional adoption and halving cycles.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,670, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours. Given the long losing streak, it is possible that the market is in some form of correction, but long-term analysts still believe in its potential for recovery.

Summary:

Bitcoin is experiencing one of its darkest periods in recent years in the first quarter of 2026. The decline in value and historical comparisons suggest that this may be just the beginning of a longer bearish trend, or, conversely, another correction before growth resumes. Investors should be cautious and monitor the market, which still offers both opportunities and challenges.

*This is not an investment recommendation.

The Coingarage Team