Bitcoin on the verge of a bearish finish: Watch these key price levels and signs of exhaustion

Bitcoin on the verge of a bearish finish: Watch these key price levels and signs of exhaustion

Bitcoin is at a critical stage in its bear cycle. After falling more than 44% from its all-time high of $126,000, the cryptocurrency is seeing warning signs that suggest it is entering the “later stages” of a bear market. Analysts are pointing to growing fear, exhaustion of demand, and significant technical levels that could determine where BTC’s price will go next.

Why are these price levels so important to watch now?

Bitcoin’s price fell back below $70,000 on Thursday, and is currently hovering around $69,444, which is an important support to watch. If it can hold above $70,000, there is a chance for stabilization and a possible rebound. Conversely, if this level is broken, the next significant support lies between $65,000 and $60,000.

Exhaustion and Bear Cycle Signals

The bear market is currently characterized by extreme fear, as confirmed by the Fear and Greed Index at 15 points. Analysts point out that most of the BTC supply is now at a loss – to be precise, around 40% of the circulating supply is being held at a loss. This phenomenon is typical of the late stages of a bear market, when demand is exhausted and liquidity is thinning.

On-chain data shows that unrealized losses and gains are at historically low levels, indicating that investors are in “waiting for the bottom” mode. According to CryptoQuant, the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is below 0.25, which is a signal that the market is still in the zone of uncertainty and pain, but at the same time it is approaching a potential bottom.

Similarly, an analysis of realized profits shows that daily profits were as high as $3 billion in July 2025, but have now fallen to less than $0.1 billion. This confirms that demand is exhausted and profit-taking sellers are almost empty.

Watch key levels and potential scenarios

According to technical analysts, it is important to watch the $70,000 level - if it can be held above this level, stabilization and prospects for recovery may occur. However, a break below $65,000 and $60,000 will open the way for a deeper decline, with the next significant support around $54,000, which was the level at which the 2022 bear market bottom formed.

Structural Signals and Market Expectations

Some analysts are suggesting that Bitcoin may have already bottomed out around $60,000, but further consistent signals are needed to confirm this. Technical analyst CryptoPatel points out that while there has been a surge to $76,000, this move is considered to be only a temporary increase, and the real areas of interest are still below $50,000.

Conclusion: What to watch next?

The key right now is to watch whether Bitcoin holds support at $70,000 and how on-chain indicators of demand exhaustion develop. If a stable base is established, it could signal a potential market recovery. Conversely, a break below $65,000 could signal another bearish move towards $54,000 or even lower.

Investors should be cautious and monitor not only price levels but also exhaustion signals on on-chain data, which reveal the real state of the market and a potential bottom. Bitcoin is now in a critical phase of its bear cycle – the question is whether it will find stability or whether we will face further tests and possible deeper corrections.

*This is not an investment recommendation.

The Coingarage Team